Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Michael Thomas has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 22.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown bad efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, giving up 9.36 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has struggled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.88 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Michael Thomas has been among the weakest wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 15th percentile.