Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-124/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to earn 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Michael Thomas has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 20.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
The Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (182.0) to WRs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
Michael Thomas has been among the worst wide receivers in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 1.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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