Michael Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+202/-303).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -267 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -303.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (70%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.0%).
The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks profile as the 10th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to be much less involved in his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (24.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (33.3% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the league since the start of last season.