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Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 2

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Michael Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+204/-307).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +234 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +204.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
  • The New Orleans Saints offensive line has given their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New Orleans Saints have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (27.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (66.7% in games he has played).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 6th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.78 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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