Michael Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+204/-307).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +234 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +204.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has given their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (27.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (66.7% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 6th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.78 per game since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.