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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

The model projects Michael Pittman to garner 7.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Colts grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tennessee's collection of CBs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Colts are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 126.7 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 54.5 per game on average).

Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.

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