Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.3% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 9.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Michael Pittman's 68.0% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a substantial diminishment in his receiving ability over last season's 71.4% rate.
This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a paltry 58.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's LB corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.