Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to accumulate 9.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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