Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 97.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) vs. wideouts this year (62.6%).
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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