Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -131 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.2 plays per game.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.5% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to garner 8.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (59.9%) to wide receivers this year (59.9%).
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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