Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+111/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to total 9.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Michael Pittman's receiving talent has improved this year, notching 6.6 yards per game vs a mere 5.1 last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.1%) vs. WRs this year (62.1%).
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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