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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.Our trusted projections expect Michael Pittman to notch 6.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 53.6 per game on average).The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Michael Pittman's 23.6% Target% this year shows a meaningful decrease in his passing offense usage over last year's 31.6% rate.After totaling 79.0 air yards per game last season, Michael Pittman has produced significantly fewer this season, now sitting at 72.0 per game.
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