Michael Pittman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (+100/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to total 8.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Michael Pittman has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL, averaging just 7.17 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 17th percentile among wide receivers