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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-414).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -384 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -414.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (24.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played).

Michael Pittman's 58.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 87th percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Michael Pittman has put up quite a few less air yards this season (65.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).

The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) vs. wideouts this year (62.6%).

The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.

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