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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-350).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +228 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +225.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 64.7 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (22.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).

Michael Pittman's 56.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 86th percentile for wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in football.

Michael Pittman has notched quite a few less air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).

The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

More Michael Pittman Player Props

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