Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-192).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Michael Pittman has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Michael Pittman has totaled a whopping 77.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.