Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a giant 11.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Michael Pittman has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (60.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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