Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-311).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -303 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -311.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 140.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (24.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Michael Pittman has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.4%) vs. WRs this year (64.4%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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