Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+187/-266).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -266.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (22.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.9% in games he has played).
Michael Pittman's 59.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 89th percentile for wideouts.
Michael Pittman's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.4% to 73.4%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Pittman has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.1%) vs. WRs this year (62.1%).
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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