Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (23.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.2% in games he has played).
Michael Pittman's 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 87th percentile for WRs.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the NFL (75.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (75.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.70 seconds per play.
Michael Pittman has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (63.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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