Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+127/-173).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Michael Pittman has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.2% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
Michael Pittman has put up a whopping 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for wideouts.
Michael Pittman has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 70.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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