Michael Mayer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Michael Mayer

NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Mayer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
While Michael Mayer has accounted for 5.9% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Las Vegas's passing offense this week at 11.2%.
When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
This year, the deficient Bears pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 83.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Raiders to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.2 plays per game.

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