Michael Mayer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:26 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Mayer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Raiders offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Michael Mayer checks in as one of the most effective pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging an impressive 8.09 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Michael Mayer rates as one of the top tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 6.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 79th percentile.
The New York Giants pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Right now, the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (58.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are projected by the projections to run only 60.4 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in football have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (only 52.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
With a lackluster 63.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (16th percentile) this year, Michael Mayer has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.