Michael Mayer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 2:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Mayer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
With an impressive 59.1% snap rate (75th percentile) this year, Michael Mayer ranks among the running backs with the highest volume in the league.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the best in football this year.
Michael Mayer checks in as one of the leading TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
The Jets pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projection model to call just 62.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
This year, the strong New York Jets defense has yielded a puny 65.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 5th-best rate in football.