Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.43 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Michael Gallup has been on the field for 76.1% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 75th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Michael Gallup has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in just 54.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 2nd percentile among wideouts

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