Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Michael Gallup has been on the field for 76.4% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Gallup has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching just 53.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile among wide receivers
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (60.6%).

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