Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Michael Gallup has run a route on 85.4% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Gallup has been among the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.5%) vs. WRs this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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