Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Gallup to accumulate 7.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
Michael Gallup has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 18.2% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys have been the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.2% pass rate.
Michael Gallup's play as a receiver has declined this season, averaging just 2.7 yards per game compared to 3.9 last season.
Michael Gallup's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 60.3% to 55.4%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a lowly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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