Michael Gallup Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Michael Gallup has run a route on 85.4% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Gallup has posted a whopping 81.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wideouts.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.5%) vs. WRs this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
Michael Gallup's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching just 6.56 yards-per-target compared to a 7.80 rate last year.
Michael Gallup has been among the bottom wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 13th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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