Michael Gallup Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:11 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Gallup's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 79th percentile for wide receivers.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus wide receivers this year (69.2%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the league.
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 56.1% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.
Michael Gallup has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (89.0 per game).

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