Michael Gallup Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Michael Gallup has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.7% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Gallup has totaled a monstrous 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among WRs.
Michael Gallup's 43.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 81st percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Michael Gallup has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 60.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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