Michael Carter Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 4.98 yards-per-carry.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Jets are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (30.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (43.4% in games he has played).
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.