Michael Carter Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (+120/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Carter has earned 48.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Michael Carter has been among the leading RBs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.32 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 84th percentile.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles profile as the 9th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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