Michael Carter Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a less important option in his offense's running game this week (23.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.7% in games he has played).
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Michael Carter has rushed for many fewer yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (45.0).
Michael Carter's running effectiveness has diminished this year, notching just 3.49 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.24 rate last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.44 yards-per-carry.