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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much smaller part of his team's running game this week (22.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.9% in games he has played).

Michael Carter has run for a lot fewer yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).

Michael Carter's rushing effectiveness (3.65 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (8th percentile among RBs).

Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

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