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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+276/-470).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -419 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -470.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.5% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Michael Carter has received 42.3% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 80th percentile among RBs.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least TDs in football (0.57 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

The Buffalo Bills defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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