Michael Carter Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+316/-577).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -561 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -577.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
Michael Carter has rushed for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (86th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (22.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.

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