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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-320).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 38.7% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (41.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.7% in games he has played).

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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