Michael Carter Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-372).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -364 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -372.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Carter has been given 41.5% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Jets have been the 2nd-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 10.0% red zone run rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles profile as the 9th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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