Michael Carter Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+242/-388).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -361 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -388.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Carter has garnered 41.2% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 7th-worst group of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 10th-least touchdowns in the league (0.83 per game) against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.