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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+343/-659).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -569 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -659.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.

The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the end zone this week (12.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (38.2% in games he has played).

Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least TDs in the league (0.58 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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