Michael Carter Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Michael Carter has been a key part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 10.0% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has been among the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an impressive 3.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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