Michael Carter Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
Michael Carter has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 9.8% this year, which places him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Michael Carter has been among the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging an impressive 2.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.
Michael Carter's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.7% to 87.3%.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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