Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
When talking about air yards, Michael Carter grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a striking 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
This year, the feeble Eagles pass defense has conceded a massive 94.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the highest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
Michael Carter's 30.1% Route% this year marks a a remarkable decline in his passing game usage over last year's 42.0% mark.
Michael Carter has totaled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (8.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).
Michael Carter's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 87.1% to 82.9%.

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