Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to earn 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.5% pass rate.
Michael Carter has put up a paltry 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 22nd percentile among RBs.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Michael Carter's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, notching a measly 5.18 yards-per-target compared to a 6.26 rate last season.
Michael Carter's talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this year, notching a measly 7.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 8.78 rate last year.

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