Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to garner 2.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 9.5% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has notched a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Michael Carter's skills in generating extra yardage have declined this season, averaging a measly 6.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.78 figure last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.