Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
Michael Carter has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 9.8% this year, which places him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Michael Carter has been among the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 18.0 yards per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.
Michael Carter's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.7% to 87.3%.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Michael Carter's talent in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 7.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.78 figure last season.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency versus running backs this year, surrendering 5.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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