Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-155/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mike White in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to accrue 4.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 10.1% this year, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Michael Carter has been among the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 19.0 yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Michael Carter's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.7% to 86.9%.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
Michael Carter has posted a puny -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 24th percentile among running backs.

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