Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to earn 3.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 10.4% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Michael Carter has totaled a puny -1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 21st percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (75.8%) to running backs this year (75.8%).
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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