Michael Carter Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+920/-3500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Carter's 15.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 77th percentile for running backs.
Michael Carter's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.6% to 86.4%.
The New York Jets offensive line has given their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Michael Carter has notched a meager 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 21st percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Michael Carter grades out in the 1st percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (76.2%) to RBs since the start of last season (76.2%).

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