Michael Carter Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-976).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Carter has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.2% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Michael Carter's 14.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for RBs.
Michael Carter's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.7% to 86.9%.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
Michael Carter has posted a puny -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 24th percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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